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Card Counting A winning Banker wager pays 19-to-20. As commissions are collected and accounted, this challenging payout causes the game to slow down, losing profit for the house. There are many different types of card counting systems. Card counters need to disguise their method of play. Card counters use their count to vary the size of their bets and sometimes their blackjack strategy. Card counters can enjoy a 10% edge over the casino. Unbalanced card counting systems are easier to use than balanced card counting systems. INTERACTIVE CARD COUNTING TRAINER INSTRUCTIONS The Interactive Card Counting Trainer is a software tool that will teach you how to count cards accurately. No experience is required to use the tool, just the desire to want to learn a mathematically proven technique that will give you the advantage over the casino when you play blackjack.

When a player decides he wants to beat a casino fair and square, the first attempt is almost always ordinary blackjack card counting. There are many reasons for this obsessive misdirection, not least of which is the sheer bulk of movies, books and websites devoted to the topic. Conversely, there is very little information available to show the would-be AP that he is completely misguided. Blackjack card counting is tough. The profit potential is small. The bankroll needed for even a modest win-rate is enormous. The swings can be brutal. If the blackjack card counter manages to get over these hurdles, then he must get away with it against casino staff who are very well-trained at spotting guys just like him.

In the world of serious table game advantage play, blackjack card counting occupies a position at the very bottom, with most professional APs considering it somewhere between death and taxes. Were it not for the large table maximums and high-roller perks that some casinos offer, there would be no pure professional blackjack card counters at all. However, this does not mean that card counting is a dying art. Indeed, it is an extremely powerful arrow in the advantage player’s quiver. With the right game-target, card counting can be an extraordinarily lucrative endeavor.

Card counting works for those games where multiple rounds are dealt between shuffles. The AP is looking for a proprietary game or side bet where there are cards that are good for the house and cards that are good for the player. Right after the shuffle these cards are in balance, giving the baseline house edge. However, as cards are dealt, the relative balance of good cards and bad cards changes, altering the house edge with each new round. Sometimes this change is enough to throw the edge toward the player side. That’s when the card counter strikes. His counting system allows him to identify these advantageous situations. Armed with this knowledge, he can choose to play a side bet or he can choose to raise his wager in the main game.

To understand how card counting works I am going to review its use against blackjack. In this case, the cards that are good for the house are 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 (the low cards) and the cards that are good for the player are the high cards (T, J, Q, K, A). When there is an abundance of high cards, the player will get more blackjacks, will get better cards on his double downs, and the blackjack dealer will bust more often when drawing to a stiff hand. When there is an abundance of low cards, the player will get fewer blackjacks, will get worse cards on his double downs, and the dealer will make more of his stiff hands. The secret of blackjack card counting is knowing whether the remainder of the deck is rich in high cards (good for the player) or low cards (good for the house).

To keep track of this ratio of high and low cards, a card counting system is used. The most commonly used counting system for blackjack is called “High-Low.” In this system, each of the low cards 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are assigned the tag +1. Each of the high cards T, J, Q, K, and A are assigned the tag -1. Finally, the neutral cards are 7, 8, and 9. Each of these is given the tag 0. Note that the suit of the card does not matter. I collectively refer to any of the cards T, J, Q, or K by the letter “T”. The following table gives a summary of the High-Low card counting system.

I will use the notation (-1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1) to describe the tags for this counting system. Whenever I use this type of notation, the cards are always listed in the order A, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, T. One feature of this system is that the tags add up to zero (recall, each of T, J, Q and K have the value -1). This makes High-Low a “balanced” card counting system. Balanced systems are most frequently used for card counting, but unbalanced systems can be useful as well.

To “count cards” in blackjack, the counter starts with a running count of 0 with a newly shuffled deck. As each card in the deck is dealt or exposed, he takes its value, 0, +1, or -1, and adds that to the running total he is keeping. This gives the current running count (RC).

For example, assume that the first few cards dealt out are: 2, 7, 9, T, T, A, 3, 5, 8, T. The following table shows the card tags and the running count after each card is dealt:

The card counter usually goes one step further and computes the “true count.” He obtains the true count (TC) by dividing the RC by the number of decks (ND) remaining to be dealt. Thus,

TC = RC / ND

Here are some examples.

In a six-deck game where two decks have been dealt out to the players, and the running count is RC = +12, then the number of decks remaining to be dealt is ND = 4. In this case,

TC = 12 / 4 = 3.

If the fraction doesn’t come out even, the convention is to round down to the lower number. Thus, if RC = 11 and ND = 2 then

TC = 11 / 2 = 5.

With a negative RC, the convention is also to round down to the lower number. Thus, if RC = -11 and ND = 2, then

TC = -11 / 2 = -6.

Any time the TC is larger than 1, the blackjack card counter has the edge over the casino. The higher the true count, the greater the counter’s edge. If the counter raises his wagers with a positive count and lowers his wagers with a negative count, he will beat the house. It’s that simple. Unfortunately for the AP, in blackjack, the win rate is extremely low (see this post and this post). A $10,000 bankroll will likely earn the counter under $20 per hour in expected profit.

The same principles that create the opportunity to beat blackjack apply to every other game or side bet where multiple rounds occur between shuffles. No game is immune. Every multiple-round game can be counted. But for each game, a new card counting system must be developed, one that relies on the good and bad cards specific to the game. Here are some examples.

Consider the Dragon 7 side bet for EZ baccarat. This side bet in baccarat pays 40-to-1 if the Banker’s three-card 7 beats the Player hand. Intuitively, natural 8’s and 9’s end the hand before a third card is drawn. It therefore benefits the Player when 8’s and 9’s are removed from the shoe. On the other hand, when a third card is drawn by the Banker, the draw cards that are most likely to bring the Banker’s total to 7 are 4, 5, 6 or 7, making these the good cards. The card counting system that best suits the Dragon 7 bet is the balanced system (0,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-1,2,2,0). The win-rate for the Dragon 7 using this count is roughly twice that of ordinary blackjack. (blog article).

Another game that is intuitively easy to understand is the Lucky Lucky blackjack side bet. This bet wins for the player if the total of the player’s two cards and dealer up-card is 19, 20 or 21, with bonuses for the hands 678 and 777. Aces can count 1 or 11. Clearly 6, 7 and 8 are good cards for the player. Not only do they help create the premium winning hands, they also yield the greatest number of winning hands in combination with other cards. Aces are also good because they can be two different numbers. Meanwhile, ten-valued cards are too large, tending to give hands that exceed 21, while 2 and 3 are too small, forming hands that have values less than 19. In other words, the bad cards are 2, 3 and 10. The card counting system that best suits the Lucky Lucky side bet is the balanced system (-1,1,1,0,0,-1,-2,-2,0,1). The win-rate for counting Lucky Lucky is roughly four times that of ordinary blackjack (blog article).

Card counting systems don’t always have to assign tags to card ranks. For example, the Red Flex side bet pays based on the number of red cards that occur consecutively in the dealer’s hand. Clearly the good cards are the red cards, the bad cards are the black cards. The count is therefore, red = -1, black = +1. The win-rate for counting Red Flex is roughly ten times that of ordinary blackjack (blog article).

Not every card counting opportunity will be lucrative. As Richard Munchkin has bent over backwards to point out (see this post), the 21 + 3 side bet is such a wager. This bet wins for the player if the player’s two cards and dealer up-card form a straight, flush, straight-flush or three-of-a-kind. There is no natural card counting system based on good and bad cards. However, situations can be identified by card counting when the remainder of the shoe is rich in one particular suit, making flushes more likely. In this case, the counter takes the difference between the most abundant and least abundant suit for his “running count.” The win-rate for counting 21 + 3 is just under half that of ordinary blackjack (blog article).

Card counting is not “one size fits all.” Just because the ten count (0,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,-2) works for Lucky Ladies does not mean that same system will be good for the Dragon 7 (good cards are 4, 5, 6, 7). The system must align with the good and bad cards for the wager it is used against, otherwise it is worthless and all claims made about it are bogus (see this post). A vulnerable wager demands a card counting system that targets its specific weaknesses. Use your common sense and you can see right through the hucksters who preach the 'one system' nonsense.

Likewise, there are some games that can be counted, but there is simply not much there, no matter how diligent the counter is willing to ply his trade. Foremost among these games are ordinary baccarat and the baccarat Tie bet. You can’t squeeze water from a rock. Baccarat will earn the counter about a cup of coffee a week. The Tie bet will yield slightly more, but is still a pitiful attempt (see this post and this post).

One of the most surprising counting opportunities is the pair bet in baccarat. Beating this bet requires the highest level of mental acuity, unless you happen to be in Macau, in which case you can just use a cell-phone app (see this post). The pair bet will give you about the same win rate as a very good blackjack card counting game. In Macau, where the limits are quite high, the pair bet has become a significant game protection problem.

The win-rates for some of these non-traditional card counting opportunities can be extraordinary. For example, the Slingo Bonus Bet 21 can earn a team of five counters over $8000 per 100 hands, playing $100 wagers (see this post). In baccarat, a team of five counters can beat the Super Pay Egalite side bet out of close to $4000 per 100 hands, playing $100 wagers (see this post).

If you would like to find out more about how I carry out my card counting analysis, see this post. It's a bit math heavy, but worth it if you really want to get into the details. If you are interested in the card counting win-rates for the full spectrum of games I've analyzed, see this post.

Every game where multiple rounds are dealt between shuffles can be card counted. This includes the myriad of blackjack variants, including games like Spanish 21 and Blackjack Switch. Some of these games are more vulnerable to card counting than ordinary blackjack, for example Triple Attack Blackjack. Others are safer, for example Super Fun 21. However, most APs are no more interested in these games than they are in card counting ordinary blackjack.

Like many aspiring new players, I put my faith in card counting ordinary blackjack when I started out. Today, card counting has become an opportunistic endeavor. Worldwide, there are teams playing against the Dragon 7 bet. Recently, a player confessed to me that he has been targeting the Red Flex bet for years. Slingo was demolished by card counters at several different casinos. Smart phones are being used to pummel the pair bet. Lucky Ladies is still a big target. It goes on. While it is true that casino management should not sweat the small stuff (e.g. 21 + 3, Royal Match, Bet the Set), it is certainly not all small stuff.

Whatever games you offer in your casino, the key is to educate yourself. Knowledge is power. You can only learn about something if information is available and you seek it out. I have made the information available in this blog. You know your games. You know your side bets. It’s up to you to take the next step.

Card counting has been around since the days of the dinosaurs (in casino years). Edward Thorp published his infamous book on card counting, 'Beat the Dealer,' in 1962. Since that time, hundreds of books on card counting have been written. Movies such as Rainman, '21' and The Hangover have featured card counting. Documentaries about card counting include The Hot Shoe, Breaking Vegas and Holy Rollers. Card counting was even the topic of an episode of The Simpsons (Sky Police, 2015).

Card counting is legal. No player can be accused of cheating based solely on the thoughts that are going on inside his own head. While casinos may not appreciate those who bring skill to bear on a game, their only recourse is to deny a card counter permission to play their games. In some jurisdictions (like New Jersey), casinos don't even have that recourse.
With all of this attention, it is no wonder that when the words 'card counting' are used, everyone thinks of blackjack. The surprising truth is that card counting works in a far more general way to beat a wide variety of games.
Card counting can be considered for any betting opportunity on a casino game that is dealt from a shoe (or single deck), when multiple rounds are dealt between shuffles. Card counting is based on the simple principle that the house edge for the wager changes as cards are removed from the shoe. Card counting does not require the counter to have a precise memory of each card that has been played. In that sense the word 'counting' is a misnomer -- better would be 'proportioning,' though that hardly rolls off the tongue. What's true is that it's much simpler than it sounds.

In most methods of card counting, the player simply identifies two groups of cards, so called 'good cards' and 'bad cards' and uses a system to weigh whether there are more good cards than bad cards left. By keeping track of the relative proportions of these groups, the counter can estimate when the wager tilts to his side. The counter bets big when he has the edge and voila, he beats the house.
For example, in blackjack, the player keeps track of the relative proportion of the high cards (T, J, Q, K, A) and low cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6). High cards are good for the player. He gets more blackjacks, his double downs get better cards and the dealer busts more often. Similarly, low cards are good for the house. The player gets fewer blackjacks, his double downs get lousy cards and the dealer makes more hands. All that's needed is a simple method to keep track of the relative proportions of these two groups. I'm going to skip the details.

Anyone who has visited a few casinos will have run across a variety of variations on the game of blackjack. Among these games are Blackjack Switch, Free Bet Blackjack, Pontoon, Spanish 21 and Super Fun 21. Each of these games can be beaten by card counting, some more than others. If you check Amazon.com, you can even get a book on beating Spanish 21 and Pontoon. But these are still blackjack and the good cards and bad cards are roughly the same as in standard blackjack. I am sure you saw the movie “rain man”:

To see how card counting can work in other situations, imagine you are presented with a proposition bet that you will be dealt a blackjack on the next hand. In this case, the good cards are clearly (T,J,Q,K,A), because you need those cards in order to get the blackjack. The bad cards are everything else, (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9). It doesn't take too many extra good cards to turn this into a powerful edge for the player. This bet has come and gone (quickly) in casinos worldwide.

In another case there was a side bet that the dealer's first two cards would be red (Diamonds or Hearts). In this case, the good cards are all red cards and the bad cards are the black cards. You can imagine the fun counters had with this bet.

These sorts of proposition bets can occur on baccarat as well. In fact, when the casino industry was reeling after Thorp published 'Beat the Dealer,' he was quietly beating a baccarat side bet that the Banker or Player hand would be dealt a natural 8 or 9. The good cards were obviously the 8's and 9's.

The game of baccarat itself can be beaten by card counting, but as any number of gaming authors have shown, the effort isn't worth he return. With $1000 wagers every time the counting system indicates the player has an edge on either the Player or Banker bet, the best counting systems give a profit of about a cup of coffee per week. However, like blackjack, game inventors have come up with numerous variations on the game of baccarat. Some of these have demolished by card counters.

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This doesn't mean that the Tie bet hasn't provided big opportunities. One game inventor decided to separate the Tie bet into ten separate wagers. He designed side bets so that the player could wager separately on a 0-0 tie, 1-1 tie, 2-2 tie and so-on. A separate card counting system was developed to track each individual tie. The counters then used a team approach, where team members were assigned to each count one specific tie. When one counter wagered on his tie, the rest of the team followed his lead and bet on that same tie.

The baccarat Pairs bet is also a big opportunity. In this case, the player is wagering that the Player or Banker hand will be dealt a pair for its first two cards. There aren't any good or bad cards for the Pairs bet which makes it a bit more challenging to count. Instead the counter must keep track of the number of cards of each rank that remain in the shoe - which is easy to do using a baccarat score card. The counter is waiting for a large imbalance in these numbers. Using a simple formula, he can calculate when he has the edge. For online live play, a simple spreadsheet can be created to track the edge.

Many players believe that 'continuous shuffle machines' have lead to the death of card counting. However, these machines suffer from what is known in the industry as 'latency.' The cards in the current round are not available until they are inserted back into the shuffler and processed. Meanwhile, the shuffler has already made the cards for the next round available. Though it's tough to get an edge, it's not impossible. In certain jurisdictions, card counting against these shufflers is an ongoing problem.

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In the modern casino industry, card counting no longer means 'blackjack card counting.' That is only one of myriad possible uses of the method, many of which give a substantially higher win-rate than counting blackjack. Each wager at a table game that uses cards dealt from a shoe is vulnerable to card counting. To beat the wager, the counter needs to know only a few details:

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• What counting system should be used?
• What is the win-rate?
• Where is the game available?
• Is there something better?

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This last point is key. For advanced players who want to beat the house, it's not a question if they can find a way do it. Rather, it's a question of lining up all of the opportunities and figuring out which one is best. Ordinary card counting at blackjack is at the bottom of this pile. A talented player who wants to beat the house will do his very best to find something better.